"On Technological Determinism: A Typology, Scope Conditions, and a Mechanism." Science, Technology, & Human Values. 40: 1047-1076. 2015. Allan Dafoe. (journal) (pdf)
The above builds from:
"Constrained Choice and Contingency: Military and Economic Competition as the Mechanism for Technological Determinism." MA thesis, Cornell University. https://hdl.handle.net/1813/3421
This contains a more detailed discussion of Japanese firearms, as well as an attempt to organize the broader study of technology in terms of its relationship to various strands of technological determinism.