Global Politics of AI and Technology
Progress in artificial Intelligence (AI) is likely to be one of the most important developments in the coming century. There is a non-trivial chance that we will see, in two decades, developments that transform society, the economy, and international relations. These will pose radical opportunities and challenges. I seek to anticipate these and identify levers for avoiding the risks. In particular I think about how global politics will shape, and be shaped by, the evolution of AI. I do this work at the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, and I consult with governments, AI labs, and non-profits. At the Asilomar Beneficial AI 2017 Conference we articulated some principles for the development of AI.
For my talks, see allandafoe/ai-talks
- "Thinking About Risks From AI: Accidents, Misuse, and Structure." 2019. Lawfare. Remco Zwetsloot and Allan Dafoe. https://www.lawfareblog.com/thinking-about-risks-ai-accidents-misuse-and-structure
- "Artificial Intelligence: American Attitudes and Trends." 2019. Baobao Zhang and Allan Dafoe. Oxford, UK: Center for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford. (pdf, html)
- "AI Governance: A Research Agenda." 2018. Governance of AI Report. https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/govaiagenda/
- "How does the Offense-Defense Balance Scale?" 2019. Journal of Strategic Studies. 42(6):736-763. Ben Garfinkel and Allan Dafoe. (journal, pdf)
- "Policy Desiderata for Superintelligent AI: A Vector Field Approach." Nick Bostrom, Allan Dafoe, and Carrick Flynn. in S. Matthew Liao ed. Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. New York: Oxford University Press. (pdf)
- "The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation." Miles Brundage, Shahar Avin, ..., Allan Dafoe, ..., Dario Amodei. 2018. https://maliciousaireport.com/
- "When will AI exceed human performance? Evidence from AI experts." Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research. 62: 729-754. 2018. Katja Grace, John Salvatier, Allan Dafoe, Baobao Zhang, Owain Evans. (journal, arXiv) (Media: #16 in Altmetric most discussed articles of 2017, BBC, Newsweek, NewScientist, Tech Review, ZDNet, Musk, Slate Star Codex, The Economist,...)
- Syllabus for Yale seminar "Global Politics of AI", 2017.
- Evidence submitted to Lords Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence (pdf). 2017. w/ Miles Brundage, on behalf of Future of Humanity Institute.
- "Yes, We Are Worried About the Existential Risk of Artificial Intelligence." MIT Technology Review. November 2, 2016. Allan Dafoe and Stuart Russell. (link, replication files)
- "On Technological Determinism: A Typology, Scope Conditions, and a Mechanism." Science, Technology, & Human Values. 40: 1047-1076. 2015. Allan Dafoe. (journal) (pdf)
Reputation, Honor, Provocation, Resolve
Leaders and publics care about reputation and honor. This concern seems to be an important cause of war. Is it? I investigate this through survey experiments, natural experiments, and theory.
- "Coercion and Provocation." Allan Dafoe, Sophia Hatz, and Baobao Zhang. (pdf) R&R
- "Authoritarian Audiences and Government Rhetoric in International Crises: Evidence from China." International Studies Quarterly. 2019. Jessica Weiss & Allan Dafoe (pdf, prereg).
- "Reputations for Resolve and Higher-Order Beliefs in Crisis Bargaining." Allan Dafoe and Remco Zwetsloot. (pdf)
- "Provocation, Public Opinion, and Crisis Escalation: Evidence from China." Allan Dafoe & Jessica Weiss (pdf, prereg)
- "Honor and War: Southern U.S. Presidents and the Effects of Concern for Reputation." World Politics. 68(2): 341-381. 2016. Allan Dafoe & Devin Caughey. (pdf; link to other files)
- "Leader Influence and Reputation Formation in World Politics." American Journal of Political Science. 62(2). 2018. Jonathan Renshon, Allan Dafoe, & Paul Huth. (pdf, journal)
- "Reputation and Status as Motives for War." Annual Review of Political Science. 17: 371-393. 2014. Allan Dafoe, Jonathan Renshon, & Paul Huth. (pdf)
- "Resolve, Reputation, and War: Cultures of Honor and Leaders’ Time-in-Office." UC Berkeley Dissertation. 2012. (pdf or here)
- "Review of Thomas Lindemann's 'Causes of War: the Struggle for Recognition.'" Journal of Peace Research. 48(5): 685-686. 2011. Allan Dafoe. (pdf)
The Liberal Peace
The peace amongst liberal countries is one of the most important phenomena for the wellbeing of humanity. I seek to understand what causes it.
- "The Suffragist Peace." Joslyn N. Barnhart, Allan Dafoe, Elizabeth N. Saunders, Robert F. Trager. (pdf)
- Consulted with Steven Pinker who advised President Obama's Athens speech about how to characterize the democratic peace. November 14, 2016. (link)
- "Observing the Capitalist Peace: Examining Market-Mediated Signaling and Other Mechanisms." Journal of Peace Research. 51(5): 619-633. 2014. Allan Dafoe & Nina Kelsey. (pdf) (online appendix) (rep files)
- "The Democratic Peace: Weighing the Evidence and Cautious Inference." International Studies Quarterly. 57(1): 201-214. 2013. Allan Dafoe, John R. Oneal & Bruce Russett. (article pdf) (replication files)
- "Does Capitalism Account for the Democratic Peace? The Evidence Still Says No" In Assessing the Capitalist Peace, ed. Gerald Schneider & Nils Petter Gleditsch. Routledge. 2013. Allan Dafoe & Bruce Russett. (replication files)
- Moderator and contributor for National Intelligence Council website on Global Trends 2030; August 2012. Moderated virtual roundtable involving William Thompson, Jack S. Levy, Richard Rosecrance, Benjamin Fordham, Bradley Thayer, Joshua Goldstein, Steven Pinker, and Erik Gartzke.
- "Statistical Critiques of the Democratic Peace: Caveat Emptor." American Journal of Political Science. 55(2): 247-262. 2011. Allan Dafoe. (article pdf) (supporting information) (replication files)
Causal inference is central to social science. Many of our tools depend on implausible parametric assumptions, are fragile, and opaque. I seek to develop tools for causal inference, particularly for observational data, that do not depend on implausible assumptions, are more robust, and more transparent.
- "Beyond the Sharp Null: Permutation Tests, Heterogeneous Effects, and Bounded Null Hypotheses." Devin Caughey, Allan Dafoe, & Luke Miratrix. (arXiv)
- "Collider Bias in Binary Variable Structures." Trang Nguyen, Allan Dafoe, & Elizabeth Ogburn. Epidemiological Methods. (arXiv)
- "Information Equivalence in Survey Experiments." Political Analysis. 26(4): 399-416. 2018. doi:10.1017/pan.2018.9. Allan Dafoe, Baobao Zhang, & Devin Caughey. (link to pdf and pre-analysis plan)
- "Nonparametric Identification of Causal Effects under Temporal Dependence." Sociological Methods & Research. 47(2): 136-168. 2018. Allan Dafoe. (pdf, journal, pdf with appendix)
- "Nonparametric Combination (NPC): A Framework for Testing Elaborate Theories." Journal of Politics. 79(2): 688-701. 2017. Devin Caughey, Allan Dafoe & Jason Seawright. (pdf)
- "Commentary on John Gerring's Social Science Methodology." Qualitative and Multi-Method Research Newsletter. 10(1):1-4. 2012. Allan Dafoe. (pdf)
Science depends on transparency. I work to promote better transparency norms and practices: scientists should share complete replication files, should preregister their analyses, should make their analyses transparent, and should evaluate the robustness of their results to reasonable alternative specifications.
- Leamer-Rosenthal Prize for Open Social Science: Emerging Researcher.
- "Promoting an Open Research Culture." Science. 348 (6242): 1422-1425. 26 June 2015. B. A. Nosek, G. Alter, G. C. Banks, ..., A. Dafoe, ..., T. Yarkoni. (journal) (pdf)
- "Science Deserves Better: The Imperative to Share Complete Replication Files." PS: Political Science & Politics. 47(1): 60-66. 2014. Allan Dafoe. (journal) (pdf) (blogs 1, 2, 3) (replication files)
- "Is There a War Party? Party Change, the Left-Right Divide, and International Conflict." Journal of Conflict Resolution. Forthcoming. Andrew Bertoli, Allan Dafoe, & Robert Trager. (pdf, journal)
- "Fitness reduction for uncooperative fig wasps through reduced offspring size: A third component of host sanctions." Ecology. 2016. K. Charlotte Jandér, Allan Dafoe, E. Allen Herre. (pdf, appendix, journal)
- "From Cell Phones to Conflict? Reflections on the Emerging ICT-Political Conflict Research Agenda." Journal of Peace Research. 52(3): 401-413. 2015. Allan Dafoe & Jason Lyall. (pdf) (journal-ungated) (Monkey Cage)
- "To Have and to Hold: Exploring the Personal Archive." Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems: 275-284. 2006. Kaye, Joseph 'Jofish', Janet Vertesi, Shari Avery, Allan Dafoe, Shay David, Lisa Onaga, Ivan Rosero, Trevor Pinch (pdf)